Arthur Griffin
From InterSciWiki
This diagram contains the key to processes rarely observed, transitions from Chiefdoms to Early State, and fitting both simulations and archaeological data from the Lake Titicaca basin. Here the fission probability is the product of two resistance-to-centralization probabilities at opposite ends of the growth scale. At the lower end small numbers of resistors have greater efffects, at the other the more the number of units combined by centralization the more likely some resistance will occur.
Could this type of transition threshold apply generally to:
- Band/Tribe/Big man to Chiefdom? - Unclear
- Chiefdom to Minimal state generally? - Likely
- Minimal state to Urbanized state? - Likely - It is not clear whether intercity trade networks are not already present in the minimal state, but in any case urbanized states have been shown to fission through colonization, forming new polities.
- Minimal or Urbanized state to Dynastic state? - Unclear: Political dynasties (Kingdoms, ruling dynasties) occur after pristine states, and can expand in scale, they fission with the death of a ruler and partition of domains to heirs (i.e., inheritance rules), but resistance to growth of centralization clearly operates as a limit to scale.
- Dynastic state to Territorial agrarian state? - Likely
- Transition to Industrial state - Likely not, because the growth dynamics of the Territorial (agrarian) state (Turchin, Nefedov) do not involve fission but times of scarcity in population/resource ratios, growing inequality, and internal conflict, with territorial boundaries acting as more of a container.
- Emergence of Mega-Corporations? - Analogous - because the growth of megacorporations is often arrested by national and international political regulations mandating breakup of monopolies. But different - in that there is no early barrier against growth.
