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Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History

Issues of Cliodynamics

(eJournal of Quantitative History)

Issue #2 History as science: Cliodynamics Journal for theoretical & mathematical history features 5 papers by SFI authors

Goldstone, Jack A. (2010). New Patterns in Global History: A Review Essay on Strange Parallels by Victor Lieberman. Cliodynamics, 1(1). Retrieved from:

Index Issue 1;volume=1;issue=1

Issue 1.1

Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History

‘Cliodynamics’ is a transdisciplinary area of research integrating historical macrosociology, economic history/cliometrics, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases. Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History is an international peer-reviewed web-based/free-access journal that will publish original articles advancing the state of theoretical knowledge in this discipline. ‘Theory’ in the broadest sense includes general principles that explain the functioning and dynamics of historical societies and models, usually formulated as mathematical equations or computer algorithms. It also has empirical content that deals with discovering general empirical patterns, determining empirical adequacy of key assumptions made by models, and testing theoretical predictions with the data from actual historical societies. A mature, or ‘developed theory,’ thus, integrates models with data; the main goal of Cliodynamics is to facilitate progress towards such theory in history.

Submission of both empirical and modeling articles is encouraged. We are particularly interested in articles that combine model development with empirical tests. However, the journal will also publish empirical papers that make explicit connections to general theories and modeling papers that are motivated by empirically observed patterns. Additionally, we publish databases (especially those focusing on time-series data) that can serve as testbeds for theories, methodological articles relevant to the issues described above, and critical commentaries on articles published in the journal and on general issues in theoretical and quantitative history.

Most accepted manuscripts are published as articles (12,000 words or less). In addition, we will consider shorter reports (a maximum of 3,000 words and four figures or tables). Occasionally we publish forum articles (12,000 words or less) reporting on a substantial advance in cliodynamics, which will be accompanied by several shorter commentaries/critiques (1,000 words each). All word limits are strictly enforced; however, an article can be linked to on-line Supporting Information, which is not limited in size. We solicit proposals for book reviews and meeting reviews, and proposals for special journal issues devoted to a particular topic.

Note on printing articles: Journal pages have been formatted in such a way that two of them fit precisely on a regular (either American, or European) sheet of paper. Thus, to print a hard copy (1) download the PDF, (2) drop the cover page, supplied automatically by eScholarship, and (3) instruct your printer to print the rest as two pages side by side.

Volume 1, Issue 1, 2010

Launching the Journal Turchin, Peter


A Dynamic Theory of Battle Victory and Defeat Collins, Randall

Synthezing Secular, Demographic-Structural, Climate and Leadership Long Cycles: Moving Toward Explaining Domestic and World Politics in the Last Millennium Thompson, William R

Cycling in the Complexity of Early Societies Gavrilets, Sergey; Anderson, David G; Turchin, Peter


Why Has the Number of International Non-Governmental Organizations Exploded since 1960? Turner, Edward A L

Book Reviews

New Patterns in Global History: A Review Essay on Strange Parallels by Victor Lieberman Goldstone, Jack A

The Silk Road: A Review Essay on Empires of the Silk Road by Christopher I. Beckwith Hall, Thomas D

Tests in Time: A Review of Natural Experiments of History, edited by Jared Diamond and James A. Robinson Currie, Thomas E

Accumulation of Knowledge in Theoretical History: A Review Essay on Historical Macrosociology by Nikolai S. Rozov Tsirel, Sergey V

Regularities in Human Actions: A Review of Bursts by Albert-László Barabási Zeng, An; Roehner, Bertrand

Index Issue 2;volume=2;issue=1;volume=2;issue=2

Issue 2.1

Volume 2, Issue 1, 2011

An Inquiry into History, Big History, and Metahistory Krakauer, David; Gaddis, John L; Pomeranz, Kenneth L


A Single Historical Continuum Christian, David

A Paleontological Look at History Erwin, Douglas H

War, Peace, and Everything: Thoughts on Tolstoy Gaddis, John L

Regularities in Human Affairs Gell-Mann, Murray

Meta-History’s Dangerous Dream Harpham, Geoffrey G

The Star Gazer and the Flesh Eater: Elements of a Theory of Metahistory Krakauer, David C

Homogeneity, Heterogeneity, Pigs and Pandas in Human History McNeill, John R

Labeling and Analyzing Historical Phenomena: Some Preliminary Challenges Pomeranz, Kenneth L

Complexity in Big History Spier, Fred

Toward Cliodynamics – an Analytical, Predictive Science of History Turchin, Peter

A Historical Conspiracy: Competition, Opportunity, and the Emergence of Direction in History Vermeij, Geerat J

Can there be a Quantitative Theory for the History of Life and Society? West, Geoffrey B

Issue 2.2

Volume 2, Issue 2, 2011

Editor's Column

Introducing the Social Evolution Forum Turchin, Peter; Hochberg, Michael E


The Roman Dominate from the Perspective of Demographic-Structural Theory Baker, David C

War Games: Simulating Collins’ Theory of Battle Victory Fletcher, Jesse B; Apkarian, Jacob; Roberts, Anthony; Lawrence, Kirk; Chase-Dunn, Christopher; Hanneman, Robert A

A Trap At The Escape From The Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia Korotayev, Andrey; Zinkina, Julia; Kobzeva, Svetlana; Bozhevolnov, Justislav; Khaltourina, Daria; Malkov, Artemy et al.

Book Reviews

How Big Should Historians Think? A Review Essay on Why the West Rules—For Now by Ian Morris, Kenneth Pomerantz

Expansion Cycles in Competitive Systems: A Review of Expansions by Axel Kristinsson Christian, David

Middle Range Theory: A Review of The Origins of Political Order by Francis Fukuyama Manning, Joseph G

Science or Ideology? A Review of The Archaeology of Politics and Power by Charles Maisels Blanton, Richard E

Social Evolution Forum

Institutional Rigidity and Evolutionary Theory: Trapped on a Local Maximum Lustick, Ian S; Nettle, Daniel; Wilson, David Sloan; Kokko, Hanna; Thayer, Bradley A





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