Exploratory causal analysis for networks of ethnographically well-studied populations

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Christian Brown and Tony Eff, 2010. The State and the Supernatural: Support for Prosocial Behavior, comments on Roes and Raymond's article Belief in Moralizing Gods, showing how ordinary methods of cross-cultural analysis lead to spurious results. They use instead the all-important approach (further refined in *Rccs*) of Eff, E. Anthon, and Malcolm Dow. 2009. How to Deal with Missing Data and Galton's Problem in Cross-Cultural Survey Research: A Primer for R. Structure and Dynamics: eJournal of Anthropological and Related Sciences 3#3 art 1.
See also 2009 The Open Social Science Journal, 2009, 2, 70-73, Moralizing Gods and the Arms-Race Hypothesis of Human Society Growth, by Frans L. Roes, Lauriergracht 127-II, 1016 RK Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Belief in Moralizing Gods

Scott D. White, Douglas R. White, Tolga Ozta, and Ren Feng: Article outline and grant proposals


Introduction to estimation methods for societal databases

Identification problems in individual and societal level data

Two-stage estimation methods for societal databases

Ordinal probit regression

Application and choice of dependent variables

Finding variables for estimating effects in causal graphs, both direct and indirect

What is needed to estimate effects in causal graphs

Ordinal probit and o^t

Needed for R release is package documentation: Scott: How do I do this?

Effects of observational nonindependence (endogenous “social effects”) and corrections for endogeneity

Scott: For equations see Dow's article cited in that section, url in references

The regression model example: General Polygyny

Spatial and historical nonindependence in general polygyny

2SLS Findings for General Polygyny

A validation test: is General Polygyny wealth-generating?

Evaluation of Alternative Models

Evaluation of Paige and Paige’s theory of resource and reproductive politics

Evaluation of Whiting and Whiting’s (1975) theory for general polygyny

Evaluation of Low, Ember and Ember debility/mortality replacement theories

Evaluation of Boehm’s (1993, 1997a,b, 1999) theory for egalitarian resistance to local authority

Evaluation of Binford’s survey of foraging societies and polygyny

Evaluation of the causal graphs approach

Advantages of 2SLS regression, using Instrumental variables (IVs)

Advantages of multiple imputation (MI).

Extended Instrumental variables (XIV)

Regression Findings for General and Sororal Polygyny without MI and IVs

Diagnostics of fit

Avoidance of overfitting


Specification and Robustness

Evaluation of ordinal probit options

Limitations and corrections for incommensurate dependent variable sample size

Proposed refinements

Conclusions: Causal graphs

Pdf of the article (for Sociological Methodology and Research)

EduMod-72 Exploratory causal analysis for networks of ethnographically well-studied populations

Appendix: Extended Instrumental variables (XIV) for Causal Graphs, by Halbert White

Grant proposal outlines

Sociology NSF outline 2010

  • Why causality?
  • Generality of the approach
  • Educational value
  • Reverse endogeneity
  • Personnel
D White: SRAS, IMPRESS, SCCS, eJournals, vHumboldt, ASA economics, ASA networks, Eur.Physics
S White
T Oztan
K Chalak
Consultant: J Pearl
Consultant: H White

Anthropology NSF outline 2010

Title: Mathematical social science applied to anthropological data

  • Roles of the mathematical social scientist
  • Publically available anthropological data
  • Ethnographies as a focus of study
  • Ethnographic and related databases
SCCS, Atlas, foragers
  • Critiques
  • Personnel
D White: SRAS, IMPRESS, SCCS, eJournals, vHumboldt, ASA economics, ASA networks, Eur.Physics
S White
J Pearl
H White
T Oztan