Food price bubble
We have just released a food price update showing our quantitative model continues to fit the data for ten more months. We project a third bubble in 2012 more severe than those in 2008 and 2011. The report is public at http://necsi.edu/research/social/foodprices/update/
This predictive validation is additional strong evidence for both the descriptive and policy implications of the model -- the primary causes of price increases are speculation and corn to ethanol conversion, policy changes are needed to prevent the upcoming bubble and the severe consequences of social disruption.
We have made videos of price bubbles and riots. They are available at http://necsi.edu/research/social/foodvideos.html
The work has been described in a NY Times blog post yesterday at http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/07/spike-in-food-prices-projected-by-2013/ and on Wired http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/03/speculation-food-prices/