Historical Complexity, Dynamics and Partial Causalities

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Historical Complexity, Dynamics, and Partial Causalities

Historical Complexity, Dynamics and Partial Causalities


http://paris-iea.fr/en/user b7we dBF8 12345 789 je35 jM7Q candidature 7, 24 April 2014

Prelude to the Methodology THIS GOES INTO THE PROJET de recherche

This project grows out of (1) White's extensive collaboration with the EHESS and LASMAS (Paris 1991-1994) and the Paris ISC, its Institute, Complexity Conferences, Summer Schools (teaching in 2007) and administrative groups (2006-2008), and (2) his focus on historical complexity from the formation of his 2004 SFI Working Group on Analyzing Complex Macrosystems as Dynamic Networks (Douglas R. White. 2004 Reportage by Gabriel Lawson): "What happens when social scientists, mathematical modelers and historians, studying such diverse questions as the evolution of cities and states, development of trade networks, and the emergence of world systems come together with mathematical modelers to more deeply explore possible cross-fertilizations? For this working group, it meant four fruitful days wherein the researchers invited by Douglas White and Henry Wright to the Santa Fe Institute presented their research, models, and modeling methods. During and afterwards, open discussion of the possibilities of dynamic models ensued. What happens when social scientists, mathematical modelers and historians, studying such diverse questions as the evolution of cities and states, development of trade networks, and the emergence of world systems, come together with mathematical modelers to more deeply explore possible cross-fertilizations? For this working group, it meant four fruitful days wherein the researchers invited by Douglas White and Henry Wright to the Santa Fe Institute presented their research, models, and modeling methods. During and afterwards, open discussion of the possibilities of dynamic models ensued.

E.g., 2004: douglas white (/synchrony and networks/ how the growth and decline of cities and the rise and fall of city-size hierarchies may be related to the network structure of intercity connections ! peter turchin /synchrony and networks in state formation/ about the rise and fall of states and how there network interconnections may bring rise and fall sequences into synchrony ! Peter Spufford http://www.queens.cam.ac.uk/general-information/contact-travel-information/directory-of-fellows/prof-spufford is currently working on the rise and decline of financial centres in Europe from the later middle ages to the present day, besides editing the Low Countries volumes in Philip Grierson’s ‘Medieval European Coinage’ series. His most recent publications include From Antwerp to London. The Decline of Financial Centres in Europe, Wassenaar 2005, and How rarely did medieval merchants use coin? Utrecht 2008. White collaborated in the coding and dynamical analysis ::::.

By Mar. 26 - Apr. 1. 2012, my SFI working group was in the fourth of new annual explorations of the original project but merged anew into the present project: Douglas R. White, Organizer, SFI Causality/Robustness Working group Meeting 4. Douglas R. White, Tolga Oztan, Peter Turchin, Amber Johnson, Henry Wright, Marcus Hamilton, Laura Fortunato, Karolina Safarzynska.

En quoi votre séjour à l'IEA de Paris est-il important pour votre projet ? Résultats attendus

Following my various tenures (1991-2010) as an invited Visiting EHESS DEA/MSH researcher in 1991-1993 (academic year, then summers), Visiting Researcher as LASMAS (Laboratoire d'Analyse Secondaire et des Méthodes Appliquées à la Sociologie. Paris, 1991-93), visiting DEA at the Laboratoire de Demographie Historique, EHESS, s a member of the SFI external faculty in complexity and network sciences, I was recruited (a to become a member of the Programme Committee, European Complexity Science Conference, 2006, speaker in ECCS'06:Networks, Professor in the first French Complex Systems Summer School, Paris, 2007, organized by the Complex Systems Institute Paris Ile de France (ICS-PIF), coordinated by the Reseau national des systemes complexes (RNSC), I was recruited into the France Complex Systems National Network (CSNN) 2006-2010, member of the Scientific Council, French National Network of Complex Systems 2007-2008, and participant in the Said Business School ECCS conference, September 2007, University of Oxford.

In the years that followed, my research in historical and ethnographic complexity, dynamics and causalities at the University of California and the SFI ran in parallel to researchers in the Institut des Systèmes Complexes Paris Île-de-France (ISC-PIF http://www.iscpif.fr /http://www.iscpif.fr/contact-us). There are benefits in both directions from renewal of collaborations with ICS-PIF Director David Chavalarias, previous Director Paul Bourgine, faculty and PhDs participating in the ISC conferences, Institute meetings and the Distal Conference are essential to the study of historical complexity, dynamics and causalities using methodologies developing in the last ten years.

I hope to contribute some original approaches to Historical complexity derived from past collaborations with Peter Turchin that stem from continuation of our SFI and other research groups for which we now have funding through the Evolution Institute in New York and 2013 NSF INSPIRE funding that extends Turchin's world database of economic history data (with collaborations as statistical methodologist; plus historical economies Enrico Spolaore, Romain Wacziarg and an experienced full-time historical empires post-doctoral coder.

"As I delve into these issues, the more I doubt the standard anthropological/historical economic scenarios that have unidirectional causal arrows going from resources => population density => social complexity. With our database we will be able to test feedback loops from social complexity => resources + population density." -- Peter

Current Methodology

I have much to learn about the developments occurring in the last ten years through the ICS-PIF Institute, its conferences, PhD programs and students, digital conferencing, use of cloud databases and software, and specific methodologies. For my part there are complementarities between ICS-PIF developments and my collaborations at the SFI* (Santa Fe Institute), across US** and European*** universities**, and the Argonne National and San Diego SuperComputer labs****. These joint projects involve the following specific methodologies:

  • Combinatory complexities White*,** Constantino Tsallis SFI**,*** (Brazil) and others.
  • Structural (k-connected) Cohesion White, Harary** (now deceased), Moody**, and Sinkovitz SDSC***
  • Historical exchange and dynamical systems Smith UCI**, Spufford Cambridge***, White UCI-SFI-SDSC, Turchin UConn**, Tsallis SFI*,***, Doyne Farmer SFI*, Schweitzer ETH***
  • Partial Causalities R library bnlearn, Bayesian network learning, library bootstrap; Pearl UCLA**, Darwiche UCLA**, Scutari U Padova***, Rodriguez SDSC****
  • Imputation and Controls for Autocorrelation in Modeling. Malcolm Dow Northwestern**, Anthon Eff MTSU**, White UCI**, with current NSF support for programmers at Argonne Natl Labs***. These three authors are currently editing the Wiley Companion to Cross-Cultural Research, which will be finished in fall 2016 and includes time series and partial causalities as extensions of methods of modeling with nonindependent samples, which include almost all observational studies (histories, ethnological, epidemiologies, and many other samples) that are not constructed by experimentally controlled (untreated and treated) samples. These methods allow autocorrelation-controlled extensions to observed-variable path analysis, with and without time-series controls. All such modeling can be seen as requiring comparisons of theoretical models against empirical modeling, thus extensible to Akaike information criterion (AIC and AICc) and BIC (Bayesian) criteria. AIC, BIC and bootstrap expansion of alternate modeling approaches, using R software on our dedicated SDSC supercomputer access through more a easily accessible Social Science Gateway now installed at UCI and to be duplicated at SFI and Britain and if possible in France (through ICS-PIF?) insures that advanced methodologies can be widely distributed at very low cost (ca. $1000 for local Gateways) and employed in open access classrooms. These developments come out of the Wiley book project and can be applied to many branches of the Social Sciences. In any given theory- and empirically-tested modeling, the term "partial correlation" denotes that few if any models will show fully causal sets of variables but that some reliable or alternative causal effects may be relatively well achieved, possibly for path analyses with observable variables.

The value of my guest research status for nine months at ICS-PIF is that there will be learning on both sides as to how complementary and composite methodologies can be achieved for different domains of study. Behavioral, systemic, and cognitive or belief-systems, for example, are being examined from our different orientations. On our side, where Turchin's collaborative theoretical and historical coding project (in which I am engaged in the modeling rather than coding issues) are complementary to our Wiley Companion project which focuses on ethnological comparisons.

Selected Bibliography

Padgett, John. 2010. https://webshare.uchicago.edu/users/jpadgett/Public/papers/published/Open.Elite.RQ.published.pdf Open Elite? Social Mobility, Marriage, and Family in Florence, 1282-1494. Renaissance Quarterly 63: 357-411 (Network construction and modeling for cohesive blocking by Douglas R. White, project for the Co-Evolution of States and Markets Working Group, Padgett and Powell, 1999-2001. https://webshare.uchicago.edu/users/jpadgett/Public/papers/published/Open.Elite.RQ.appendix.pdf Appendix).

Spolaore, Enrico, and Romain Wacziarg. (2013). How Deep Are the Roots of Economic Development?. Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 51, no 2. (Published prior to the submission of Turchin's NSF grant for extension of coding time-series of historical empires).

Spufford, Peter. 2002. Power and Profit, The Merchant in Medieval Europe. Thames and Hudson.

Turchin, Peter Turchin. 2010. Warfare and the Evolution of Social Complexity: A Multilevel-Selection Approach Structure and Dynamics 4#3.s.uci.edu/~drwhite/Civ/SFIConferenceSummary.pdf summary v9/04 Reportage by Gabriel Lawson

Turchin, Peter. 2009b. “A theory for formation of large empires.” Journal of Global History 4:191-217. "Turchin (2009b) connects many important dynamics to the interactions along meta-ethnic boundaries between sedentary and nomadic populations. His “desert pump” idea suggests that long droughts in regions that have marginal productivity led to incursions and warfare among sedentary and nomadic polities." (from preprint, Fletcher et al. 2011).

Turchin, Peter. 2009a. "Long Term Population Cycles in Human Societies." In, This Year in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology 2009. Edited by R. S. Ostfeld and W. H. Schlesinger (Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences).

Turchin, Peter, and Sergey A. Nefedov. 2009. Secular Cycles. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Turchin, Peter. 2008. Arise Cliodynamics. Nature 454: 34-35

Turchin, Peter. 2006. Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: a Reconsideration. Social Evolution and History 5/2: 121–158 (contains an extra figure from the submitted version), with Andrey Korotayev. Discussed in http://intersci.ss.uci.edu/wiki/index.php/Realistic_modeling_of_complex_interactive_systems#______Conclusions:_Part_1 which was part of White's lectures in the 2007 Paris Complexity Summerschool although the pointers to specific articles are not longer correct.

Turchin, Peter. 2005 War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires. Pi Press. (paperback 2007)

Turchin, Peter. 2005 Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States. Structure and Dynamics 1(1): 49-69.

Turchin, Peter. 2003 Complex Population Dynamics: a Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis. Princeton University Press. Additional stuff (known typos, NLTSM software) here.

Turchin, Peter. 2003 Evolution in population dynamics. Nature 424: 257-258. Abstract: In their study of predator–prey cycles, investigators have assumed that they do not need to worry about evolution. The discovery of population cycles driven by evolutionary factors will change that view.

Turchin, Peter. 2003 Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

White, Douglas R. 2004. Proceedings of the Working Group on Analyzing Complex Macrosystems as Dynamic Networks: Growth and decline phases of city size and territorial size of states. April 29-May 2 2004 Santa Fe Institute http://eclectic.ss.uci.edu/~drwhite/Civ/SFIConferenceSummary.pdf Reportage by Gabriel Lawson for SFI

List of 5 Publications

  • It is difficult to express work in complexity and dynamics because there is an iterative and collaborative process in each advance. The publications listed illustrate my work on (1:1992) World System Trade-Network Dynamics (2:2005a) Global Inter-Organizational Collaborative Networks (3:2005b) Network Complexity in Multigenerational Social Organization (4:2009) Complexities in Historical Dynamics (5:2014) Oscillatory Historical City System Dynamics. In two cases it is important to recognize that the work builds on previous collaborative publications or is extended by other authors (e.g., John Padget's building on my 2005b and 1997 network methodologies in SFI working group collaborations). Our 2014 SFI working group results on Bayesian "Learning graphs" as an expression of partial causalities is not yet published.
  • These publications are at my Tp list Topical_publications:_Douglas_R._White: http://intersci.ss.uci.edu/wiki/index.php/Topical_publications:_Douglas_R._White#White_et_al._papers
  1. 1992 Tp46 David Smith & Douglas R. White. Structure and Dynamics of the Global Economy: Network Analysis of International Trade 1965-1980. Social Forces 70(4):857-894. http://eclectic.ss.uci.edu/~drwhite/pw/GlobalEcon1992.pdf (1988 Interview: Large-Scale Network of World Economy: Social scientists use the CRAY. Science at the San Diego Supercomputer Center 1987: 27-28. http://eclectic.ss.uci.edu/~drwhite/WorldTrade/Cray.pdf
  2. 2005a Tp38 Walter W. Powell, Douglas R. White, Kenneth W. Koput & Jason Owen-Smith. http://intersci.ss.uci.edu/wiki/pdf/Powell_White_etal_network_dynamics.pdf Network Dynamics and Field Evolution: The Growth of Interorganizational Collaboration in the Life Sciences; http://ucpjournals.uchicago.edu/AJS/journal/contents/v110n4.html American Journal of Sociology] 110(4):901-975. http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/421508 AJS enhanced text and PDF. Voted Viviana Zelizer Best Paper in Economic Sociology Award (2005-2006), American Sociological Association http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/421508 See also http://www.santafe.edu/research/working-papers/abstract/be830f67e0e83fe553ec886108dbe7af
  3. 2005b Tp100 Douglas R. White & Ulla Johansen. Chapter 1: Introduction: Networks, Ethnography and Emergence (Subject: Network Complexity). Pp 1-60, In, Network Analysis and Ethnographic Problems: Process Models of a Turkish Nomad Clan. Boston: Lexington Press. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_Analysis_and_Ethnographic_Problems : book summary. Builds on methodology of 1997 Tp60 Lilyan A. Brudner & Douglas R. White. http://eclectic.ss.uci.edu/~drwhite/T&S/BrudnerWhite1997Convert.pdf Class, Property and Structural Endogamy: Visualizing Networked Histories. http://www.springerlink.com/content/n551750q42747757 Theory and Society 25(2):161-208. http://repositories.cdlib.org/postprints/3/ Reprinted http://www.springerlink.com/content/103005/?k=Brudner 2014 in "Applications of Social Network Analysis," edited by Peter J. Carrington (U. Waterloo, Canada), SAGE Publications.
  4. 2009 Tp60 Douglas R. White. Dynamics of Human Behavior (Cohesion and Resistance). Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. SFI Working paper 08-09-042 - early draft pdf - preprint: Dynamics of human behavior MBS 2008 - http://www.springer.com/physics/complexity/book/978-0-387-75888-6?changeHeader=&otherVersion=978-0-387-69572-3. The book Cohesion by Robert Hercock cites White 2008 after discussing simulations of historical dynamics as "A much deeper technical analysis that utilizes computer modeling to study the network dynamics of human history..." and on p211 "A deep, but rather technical reference that covers the detail of human social cohesion from a mathematical and network perspective is also provided in his paper, 'Dynamics of Human Behavior', SFI research paper, 2008-09-042." This and previous work such as Tp60 is the basis of collaborative work with Padgett, John. 2010. Open Elite? Social Mobility, Marriage, and Family in Florence, 1282-1494. Renaissance Quarterly 63: 357-411 (Network construction and modeling for cohesive blocking by Douglas R. White, project for the Co-Evolution of States and Markets SFI Working Group, led by Padgett and Powell, 1999-2001. https://webshare.uchicago.edu/users/jpadgett/Public/papers/published/Open.Elite.RQ.appendix.pdf Appendix).
  5. 2014 Tp58 (in press) Douglas R. White and Laurent Tambayong. City system vulnerability and resilience: oscillatory dynamics of urban hierarchies. Chapter 10, in, Vijay Mago and Vahid Dabbaghian, Eds., Modelling and Simulation of Complex Social Systems. http://www.wikicfp.com/cfp/servlet/event.showcfp?eventid=20952 Intelligent Systems Reference Library - Call for papers]. http://intersci.ss.uci.edu/wiki/pdf/316833_10_ChapAnnot.pdf Builds on 2008 Douglas R. White, Laurent Tambayong, and Nataša Kejžar. Oscillatory dynamics of city-size distributions in world historical systems. Chapter 9, In, George Modelski, Tessaleno Devezas and W. Thompson, eds. http://www.amazon.com/Globalization-Evolutionary-Process-Rethinking-Globalizations/dp/041577361X/ref=ed_oe_p Globalization as Evolutionary Process: Modeling Global Change (Rethinking Globalizations). pp. 190-225. London: Routledge. http://intersci.ss.uci.edu/wiki/pw/ModelskiCh9WTK.pdf

Summary of the Project Le résumé du projet (ne doit pas excéder 1500 signes / 200 mots (titres inclus)) :

Historical Complexity, Dynamics and Partial Causalities aims at exploring and finding synergies between the sociohistorical projects of the French complexity groups and those of the SFI and other international projects by inserting for an academic year at the ISC-PIF an advanced social scientist who has worked these two sides of the Atlantic with extensive work in complexity, dynamics, and modeling and who is free to participate in IAC meetings and scholarship. The proposed candidature discusses a Prelude to and Current Methodology and Selected and Project-Oriented Bibliographies for the participant designed for collaborations and discussions for both the humanistic and scientific aspects of potential projects in common.

Projet de recherche, sous le format ppf

Entre 5 et 10 feuillets / maximum 4000 mots, incluant une bibliographie sélective portant sur la problématique proposée + un état des collaborations existantes ou envisagées avec les institutions ou les chercheurs en France

bibliographie sélective portant sur la problématique proposée

see above with intro

existing collaborations with institutions ou les chercheurs en France

see above, shortened. This is a renewal of collaborations from seven (7) years ago: David, Paul, Camille Roth