Peter Turchin

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2 Secular Cycles
3 Publications
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[edit] Bio

Peter Turchin

2006. Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: a Reconsideration. Social Evolution and History 5/2: 121–158 (contains an extra figure from the submitted version), with Andrey Korotayev. Discussed in http://intersci.ss.uci.edu/wiki/index.php/Realistic_modeling_of_complex_interactive_systems#______Conclusions:_Part_1

2003 Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall. Princeton University Press.

2005 War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires. Pi Press. (paperback 2007)

2005 Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States. Structure and Dynamics 1(1): 49-69.

2003 Complex Population Dynamics: a Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis. Princeton University Press. Additional stuff (known typos, NLTSM software) here.

2003 Evolution in population dynamics. Nature 424: 257-258

2003 Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003.

2008 Arise Cliodynamics. Nature 454: 34-35

Several of his studies are cited by Doug White in his Paris ECCS and Complexity summer school lectures, which also use and cite images from his Cliodynamics site [1] papers and SFI and ECCS powerpoints.

[edit] Secular Cycles

Secular Cycles by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov, under contract with Princeton University Press (to be published in 2008)

"In Secular Cycles the Russian historian Sergey Nefedov and I have collaborated on presenting our best case study of theoretical history. Our book focuses on grand—centuries-long—oscillations in demographic, economic, social, and political structures of historical agrarian societies. We start the book with an overview of the demographic-structural theory explaining secular cycles, but our main goal is the presentation of a large amount of empirical material documenting the trajectories of actual societies. Our survey includes chapters on England, France, and Russia from medieval to early modern periods, and the Roman Republic and Empire. We are also planning another volume on China from the Han to Qing eras, the ancient Egypt and Mesopotamia, medieval Near East, and India. Any and all comments will be extremely welcome." -- Cliodynamics page

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